2009年7月17日金曜日

俺の話を聞け by ルービニ



おいおい、はしゃいでるウォール街の人達。

ちょっと待ってくれよ。 俺は最初からリセッションは24ヶ月だって言ってたじゃないか。

今月で19ヶ月経ったわけだから2010年の始まりにリセッションが終われば予想どおりで何も変わってないだろう。

人の言葉尻を掴んで、そんなにはしゃいでもらっては困るよ。 本当。

去年の事を思い出してみてくれよ。 去年皆は1990年や2001年の時みたいにリセッションは8ヶ月でV型で回復するって言ってたじゃないか。
その時に俺は今回はV型じゃなくてU型で、3倍長く5倍深いリセッションだって言ってた訳だろ。 今のところ俺の言ってたとおりだろ。

でだ。24ヶ月でリセッションは終わるよ。 だから何にも新しい話じゃない。

それに肝心なところをちゃんと聞いてくれよ。 前からしつこく言ってんだから。
皆が今考えてる戻るであろう潜在成長率が2.75%だとしたら、俺はこれから2年ほどは1%ぐらいだろって思ってる。

それに2番底だってあるって言ってるじゃない。

おい、そこ、ちゃんと聞けって。

政府が思い切り借金してるだろ。 これって民間のデレバレッジに対してリレバレッジ(re-leverage)なんだよ。 クラウディングアウトで民間に資金だって廻らなくなる可能性だってあるんだぜ。

失業率だって2010年には11%にいくよ。 勤労者所得を押し下げ消費にはもち悪影響だ。住宅部門の底打ちも遅らす。 そのせいで不良債権がいっぱい溜まって銀行部門だって大変なんだから。 そんなもん政府がいちいち助けてるお金なんてもうないんだよ。


まあ、そうは言っても確かにトンネルの先に出口の明かりは見えてきたよ。
リセッションは終わるよ。 でもね、弱いんだよ。 2番底だってあるかもしれない。

こらっ、そこのトレーダー聞いてるか。

政府の出口ストラテジー、財政金融政策はかんたんじゃないぞ。

それでだな。 頼むから俺のせいで株価が上がったなんてはしゃぐのはやめてくれよ。



本文ちゃんと読んで下さい。

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 16, 2009

STATEMENT ON U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BY DR. NOURIEL ROUBINI


The following is a statement from Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor, New York University, Stern School of Business:


“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19thmonth of a severe recession; so the V is out of the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

“I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today - that while the consensus predicts that the US economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.

“I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long term interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand.

“While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.

“Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak: I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.

“So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the US and the global economy; but as I have consistently argued the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.

“RGE Monitor will soon release our updated U.S. and Global Economic Outlook.A preview of the U.S. Outlook is available on our website: www.rgemonitor.com






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